[Genealogy] Deductive Reasoning and Crack Slippers

[Michael John Neill]

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Genealogy Update 30 April 2026

** Inductive vs. Deductive Reasoning
** AI for Genealogy
** Crack Slippers
** More Problem-Solving with Full-Text Search at FamilySearch


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Inductive vs. Deductive Reasoning
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People throw around the phrase “deductive reasoning,” but I’m not certain
that everyone really knows the true meaning of the phrase.

“I looked at other handwriting by the clerk and using deductive reasoning I
concluded that the letter that was difficult to read was an ‘M.'” The
conclusion that the letter was an “M” may very well be correct, but it
wasn’t deductive reasoning that was used. In reading other writing of the
same clerk, a pattern may be noticed as to how the clerk makes his letters.
Noticing a pattern and then concluding that the pattern always happen
is *inductive
reasoning*–not deductive reasoning.  Inductive reasoning is a valid form of
reasoning–but it involves taking examples, making a rule from those
examples and saying that the next time it will happen the same way.

Genealogists use *deductive reasoning* all the time. Deductive reasoning
takes specific rules that are known to be always true (or *hoped *to be
always true) or statements made in documents and uses those rules or
statements to reach an unstated conclusion. Here’s one simple example of
deductive reasoning.

   - The marriage record of Henrietta Newman in Smith County, Illinois, in
   1869 has no letter of consent to marry and no notation is made on the
   record that someone provided consent.
   - Females had to be 18 to marry in Illinois in 1869.

*Therefore Henrietta Newman was at least 18 on the date of her marriage. *

The conclusion about Henrietta’s age at the time of her marriage is based
upon deductive reasoning. We are using the “rule” about female marriage
age, combined with the marriage record, to conclude something about
Henrietta that is not on the marriage record specifically. Some would say
we have inferred Henrietta’s age or year of birth and others would say the
marriage record was “indirect evidence.” I’m not really certain I like the
phrase “indirect evidence” and I’m not certain it really matters if that
phrase is used or not. What does matter is that we state why we think
Henrietta was born in a certain year if the marriage record (and the age at
marriage) allows us to deductively conclude that.

There’s actually one more “given” that we need to state if we are really
going to conclude when Henrietta was born:

   - The marriage record of Henrietta Newman in Smith County, Illinois, in
   1869 has no letter of consent to marry and no notation is made on the
   record that someone provided consent.
   - Females had to be 18 to marry in Illinois in 1869.
   - Henrietta *knew her age and did not lie about it* in order to marry.

If all those statements are true, then Henrietta was at least 18 on the
date of her marriage.

Whether you use inductive or deductive reasoning, make certain you
contemplate the validity of your argument. Inductive reasoning can lead you
astray when your ancestor doesn’t really “fit the pattern” after all and
deductive reasoning can get you in trouble if your ancestor lied, was
unaware of the law, or the clerk was sloppy.
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Slipping Through the Cracks
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It is always good to contemplate who could haves slipped through the cracks
in the records that have been located and used.

Henry and Barbara Trautvetter’s known children were named in a 1870-era
estate settlement for Henry’s brother in Hancock County, Illinois. The
brother had no children and Henry was one of his heirs under Illinois state
statute. While Henry survived his brother, Henry died before the brother’s
estate was finally settled. Henry’s death necessitated that his children be
listed in the probate record as they became heirs of Henry’s brother upon
Henry’s death.

But the estate settlement of Henry’s brother was not interested in all of
Henry’s children. The court would only have been interested in:

   - Henry’s children who survived him.
   - Henry’s pre-deceased children who had descendants of their own alive
   at the time Henry’s brother’s estate was settled.

Children who died before Henry and did not leave descendants of their own
would not have been mentioned.

Think about the record you are using–who would  be in it and who would not.
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Michael John Neill
Genealogy Tip of the Day
PO Box 17, Henderson, IL 61439
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