Is One Match an Outlier?

A relatively new DNA match, we will call him Alfred, has three shared matches with me:

• David
• Ronald
• Thomas

David and Thomas are known descendants of my Trautvetter 3rd great-grandparents via their paper genealogy. The shared matches I have with David and Thomas are not all identified, but for each of them over two-third of the shared matches are also know members of the Trautvetter family. Their Trautvetter connection is pretty solid. My Trautvetter connection is on my paternal side of the family.

Then there is Ronald.

Ronald has an unusual last name that is actually common in the area of Germany where my maternal ancestors are all from (Ostfriesland). Ronald has numerous shared matches. The closest 25 matches I have to Ronald are all known descendants of various maternal ancestors.

The Trautvetters are from Thuringen.

My working conclusion is that while Alfred and Thomas are both related to me, they are somehow related to each other in a way other than the way I am related to them.

Whenever I see a group of shared matches to a match of mine, I keep in mind that there is the distinct possibility that all of those shared matches may not share the same family with me.